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“the truth is that prediction is hard, often impossible.”
Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment, co-authors an interesting article in foreign policy. Academic research suggests that predicting events five years into the future is so difficult...
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What makes predictions succeed or fail?
That’s the ambitious question that Nate Silver tries to answer is his forthcoming book The Signal and the Noise. The book appeals to me because it “takes a comprehensive look at prediction across 13...
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The art of forecasting
An interesting excerpt from Tim Harford’s review of The Signal and the Noise on Bayes’ theorem and improving prediction: Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century minister and mathematician, nonconformist in both...
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The Future Is Not Like The Past
From Everything Is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us: The ubiquity of complex systems in the social world is important because it severely restricts the kinds of predictions we can make. In simple...
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Thomas Bayes and Bayes’s Theorem
Very little is known about the life of Thomas Bayes. We don’t know whether he was born in 1701 or 1702 and we don’t know if the picture commonly associated with him has been misattributed. We do know...
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Philip Tetlock — How To Win At Forecasting
A great edge.org conversation with Philip Tetlock on how to win at forecasting. An introduction by Daniel Kahenman: Philip Tetlock’s 2005 book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We...
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Only Fools Claim To Know The Future
John Kay argues that while only fools claim to know the future we can make good predictions in well-structured situations. Even in these situations, however, predictions are probabilistic at best....
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How Good Gamblers Think
From The Signal And The Noise: Successful gamblers – and successful forecasters of any kind – do not think of the future in terms of no-lose best, unimpeachable theories, and infinitely precise...
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Everybody’s An Expert
A reader recently passed along a link to Louis Menand’s 2005 New Yorker review of Philip Tetlock’s book: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. While I’ve read the book, I’d never...
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What Matters More in Decisions: Analysis or Process?
Think of the last major decision your company made. Maybe it was an acquisition, a large purchase, or perhaps it was whether to launch a new product. Odds are three things went into into that decision:...
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Nate Silver: Confidence Kills Predictions
Best known for accurate election predictions, statistician Nate Silver is also the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t. Heather Bell, Managing Editor of...
View ArticleThe Signal and the Noise
In this video, stats guru and political forecaster Nate Silver (author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t) reveals why most predictions fail, and shows how we can...
View ArticleDaniel Kahneman’s Favorite Approach For Making Better Decisions
Bob Sutton’s book, Scaling Up Excellence: Getting to More Without Settling for Less, contains an interesting section towards the end on looking back from the future, which talks about “a mind trick...
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The Wisdom of Crowds and The Expert Squeeze
As networks harness the wisdom of crowds, the ability of experts to add value in their predictions is steadily declining. This is the expert squeeze. In Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of...
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Philip Tetlock on The Art and Science of Prediction
This is the sixth episode of The Knowledge Project, a podcast aimed at acquiring wisdom through interviews with fascinating people to gain insights into how they think, live, and connect ideas. *** On...
View ArticleThe Future Is Not Like The Past
From Everything Is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us: The ubiquity of complex systems in the social world is important because it severely restricts the kinds of predictions we can make. In simple...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Thomas Bayes and Bayes’s Theorem
Thomas Bayes was an English minister in the first half of the 18th century, whose (now) most famous work, “An Essay toward Solving a Problem is the Doctrine of Chances,” was brought to the attention...
View ArticleWhat makes predictions succeed or fail?
That's the ambitious question that Nate Silver tries to answer in k The Signal and the Noise. The book appeals to me because it “takes a comprehensive look at prediction across 13 fields, ranging from...
View ArticleNassim Taleb: The Winner-Take-All Effect In Longevity
Nassim Taleb elaborates on the Copernican Principle, a concept first introduced on Farnam Street in How To Predict Everything. For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a...
View Article“the truth is that prediction is hard, often impossible.”
Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment, co-authors an interesting article in foreign policy. Academic research suggests that predicting events five years into the future is so difficult...
View Article
